• 出海 – 常见的陷阱

    在上一篇文章中,我们讨论了出海成功需要的5C。在这篇文章里,我们将在深入探讨5C之前,讨论海外业务拓展过程中的常见陷阱。


    常见的陷阱:

    1. 过度自信 – 完全依赖于自己的认知,而不是投入资源来了解市场的实际情形
    2. 投入不足 – 将肤浅的理解误认为“足够好”
    3. 完全不干预 – 当地渠道伙伴的合作方式

    1. 过度自信: 完全依赖设想的风险

    最危险的陷阱之一是过度自信。基于表面的相似性或轶事证据建立对一个新市场的理解,可能会导致代价高昂的错误。这可能会导致公司认为他们了解目标市场,而实际上他们对基于刻板印象和有限数据的肤浅理解。至关重要的是要抵制草率概括的诱惑,转而投资于彻底的市场研究。

    Overconfidence

    事实上,那些看起来足够熟悉的市场往往被分析得最少,从而导致上述失败。当我们进入一个我们认知上定义为不同的国家时,我们自然会认为我们不知道,必须了解更多。

    讽刺的是,企业很容易承认其组织内不同部门的独特性,但在评估外国市场时却没有应用同样的逻辑。要是我们能把它转过来…

    记住:即使是看似熟悉的市场也可能隐藏着复杂性。通过抱着谦逊的态度进行严谨的分析,你可以避免代价高昂的失误。


    2. 投入不足: 偷工的代价

    了解一个新市场不仅仅是阅读或承认差异,然后假设你的“卓越”业务/产品/文化可以赢得他们的青睐!许多公司认为他们可以改变用户的行为,并以规模或标准化的名义强行改变。毫无意外的,这些尝试大部分都失败了

    公司必须投入必要的资源,以深入了解目标市场,包括了:

    • 确定目标用户和利益相关者和他们的具体需求。
    • 分析国内和目标市场之间的差异。
    • 开发针对目标市场量身定制的产品体验,而不是对你来说最容易的。

    不多说,千万不要认为你知道。投入合理的前期准备,更好地理解市场背景。一旦你有了更好的理解,问问你是否愿意投入必要的资源在新市场增长。必须意识的是,适应新市场通常需要2-3倍于最初计划的资源。肤浅地派遣高管进行短暂访问或在没有本地化的情况下把国内现有的工作方式照办,很可能会导致失败。

    记住:用户既有的习性是很难改变的。为了在任何扩张中取得成功,要致力于投入足够的资源来了解目标市场,并建立合适的团队来提供量身定制的服务


    3. 完全不干预当地伙伴: 不一致的风险

    Hands-off

    虽然与当地分销商或特许经营商合作可以加快市场落地,但不干预的做法可能会导致不可预见的问题。解决问题所需的资源投入极可能超过快速落地的回报。找到与公司目标和价值观相一致的合适合作伙伴对于可持续的双赢关系至关重要,但说易行难。

    毕竟,您的组织不直接进入市场运营的关键考虑因素(例如不同的文化和商业环境、缺乏人才……)仍然是当地合作伙伴的运营环境。如果您的组织的工作方式无法适应新市场,请记住,您的当地合作伙伴不太可能改变他们的工作方式来配合您的组织

    成功的伙伴关系需要清晰的沟通、理解和谦逊的心态。方法论包括:

    • 共同愿景:明确阐述您对合作伙伴关系的长期目标和期望。
    • 定期沟通:建立定期沟通渠道,解决问题,分享最新情况,及时做出决策。
    • 文化敏感性:注意文化差异,并相应地调整您的沟通风格。

    记住:不干预的方法可能会带来重大挑战。有效的伙伴关系需要积极参与、清晰沟通和相互信任


    我们可以怎么办呢?

    这需要一个非常重要的心态转变 – 谦逊。很重要的认知:用户对你的产品的认知并不像你想的那么高。因此,他们不会只为了让你融入他们的生活,而费心重新学习/改变自己的行为。您所在国家的用户可能是潜意识地消费,而不是有意识地考虑使用您的产品。在一个新的国家,用户根本不会考虑您的产品。因此,您必须让产品使用尽可能无缝地融入既有习性,而不是强迫用户重新学习。既有习惯,无论它们看起来多么微小,的惯性非常高


    这并不是说企业应该避免出海。相反,一家公司在拓展海外业务时必须尽职尽责、深思熟虑。在很多情况下,您在国内市场的运作方式与其他国家的情况非常接近。因此,我们对出海的考量应该从“我应该扩展到X国吗?”延申到“我们需要做出哪些调整,以何种顺序拓展到这些国家?”。企业必须能够找到需要最少调整的市场并随着组织经验的积累逐步扩展到更具挑战性的市场


    通过识别和解决这些常见的陷阱,您可以提高成功出海的机会。在未来的文章里,我们将深入探讨具体的策略和战术,以帮助您克服这些挑战。

    请问您对出海有什么具体问题,或者想讨论一个特定的市场吗?

  • Global Expansion – Common Pitfalls

    Following up on the previous post where we discussed the 5Cs for successful global expansion, in this post, we will quickly highlight common pitfalls during expansion, before diving deep into the 5Cs.


    Common pitfalls:

    1. Overconfidence – in own perception and not investing resources into actual understanding of the landscape
    2. Insufficient Investment – Mistaking shallow/superficial understanding for ‘good enough’
    3. Hands-off – when partnering with local channel partners

    1. Overconfidence: The Perils of Assumption

    One of the most dangerous pitfalls is overconfidence. Assuming familiarity with a new market, based on superficial similarities or anecdotal evidence, can lead to costly mistakes. This can lead companies to assume they understand the target market when they actually have a superficial understanding based on stereotypes and limited data. It’s crucial to resist the temptation of making hasty generalizations and instead invest in thorough market research.

    Overconfidence

    In fact, markets that look familiar enough tend to be the least analyzed, resulting in the failures mentioned above. When entering a country that we cognitively define as different, we naturally assume we do not know and have to find out more about. 

    The irony is that businesses readily acknowledge the uniqueness of different departments within their organization, yet fail to apply the same logic when evaluating foreign markets. If only we can flip this around…

    Remember: Even seemingly familiar markets can harbor hidden complexities. By conducting rigorous analysis and embracing a humble approach, you can avoid costly missteps.


    2. Insufficient Investment: The Price of Cutting Corners

    Understanding a new market goes beyond simply reading about it or acknowledging differences, then assuming your ‘superior’ business/product/culture can win them over! A lot of companies think that they can change users’ behavior and bulldoze their way over, usually in the name of scale or standardization. Guess what, a lot of them have failed doing just that

    Companies must invest the resources necessary to gain a deep understanding of the target market, including:

    • Identifying the target users and stakeholders and their specific needs.
    • Analyzing the differences between the home and the target market.
    • Developing a product experience tailored to the target markets, NOT what is the easiest for YOU.

    Needless to say, do not assume that you know. Do proper diligence to understand the context better. Once you have a better understanding, ask if you are willing to invest the resources necessary to win in the market.  It is essential to recognize that adapting to a new market usually requires 2-3x the initially planned resources. Superficial efforts, such as sending executives on brief visits or implementing existing work practices without localization, are likely to fail.

    Remember: Habits die hard. To succeed in any expansion, be committed to investing sufficient resources to understand the target markets and building the right team to deliver a tailored proposition.


    3. Hands-off with Local Partners: The Risk of Misalignment

    Hands-off

    While partnering with local distributors or franchisees can expedite market entry, a hands-off approach can lead to unforeseen problems and outweigh the benefits. Finding the right partner who aligns with the company’s goals and values is crucial for a sustainable win-win relationship, but easier said than done. 

    After all, the key considerations of operating without a direct presence in the market (e.g. different cultures & business environments, lack of talents…) would still be the operating circumstances for your local partners. If it’s difficult for you to change your organization to work in a certain way, please remember that your local partner is unlikely to change their ways of working to align with yours.

    Successful partnerships require clear communication, understanding, and a mindset of humility. Best Practices include:

    • Shared Vision: Clearly articulate your long-term goals and expectations for the partnership.
    • Regular Communication: Establish regular communication channels to address concerns, share updates, and make timely decisions.
    • Cultural Sensitivity: Be mindful of cultural differences and adapt your communication style accordingly.

    Remember: A hands-off approach can lead to significant challenges. Effective partnerships require active engagement, clear communication, and mutual trust.


    What can we do about this?

    This requires a very important mindset shift – humility. It’s critical to recognize that users do not think about your offering as much/highly as you would like. Hence they will not bother relearning/changing their behavior, JUST to include you in their lives. Users in your home country might be on auto-pilot and not consciously thinking about using your product. In a new country, they are not thinking about your product AT ALL. Hence, you want to make adoption as seamless as possible, not make them do something different. Habits die really hard, no matter how small or subtle they seem to be.


    This is not to say that global expansion is to be avoided. Rather, a firm has to be conscientious and thoughtful in approaching global expansion. There are enough circumstances where how things work in your home market is a good enough approximation of other countries. Hence, it’s worth reframing market expansion from a series of binary ‘Should I expand into country X?’ to What adjustments do we need to make and in what order do we enter these countries?’ This involves identifying markets that require minimal adjustments and gradually expanding into more challenging markets as the organization gains experience.


    By recognizing and addressing these common pitfalls, you can increase your chances of successful global expansion. In future posts, we will delve deeper into specific strategies and tactics to help you overcome these challenges.

    Do you have any specific questions about global expansion or want to discuss a particular market?

  • 出海 – 容易吗?

    许多组织在持续增长的诱惑下,将目光投向了全球扩张。未开发市场和加速增长的前景可能是不可抗拒的。虽然这种策略可以带来巨大的回报,但至关重要的是要对所涉及的挑战有清晰的认识。

    然而,并非所有拓展是一样的。历史上充满了警示故事,即使是经验丰富的公司也在国际业务中步履蹒跚。

    这些公司是全球性的吗?

    公司公司来自国外(美国)的收入占比收入增长(国际 vs.美国)
    沃尔玛21%14% vs. 5%
    星巴克22%-2% vs. 2%
    美泰41%0.5% vs. -0.1%
    爱彼迎53%13% vs. 10%

    大多数人都会同意,他们是全球性公司,其收入的很大一部分来自美国以外。

    然而,即使是他们,在拓展海外业务中也面临着挫折。


    以下哪个城市与美国更相似?

    大多数人会选择悉尼,而不是北京。


    沃尔玛和星巴克在中国都取得了成功(市场与美国截然不同),直到更广泛的市场格局发生了变化。他们不得不撤离的一些国家会令人惊讶

    • 沃尔玛 – 德国(9年后退出)、日本(12年)、韩国(7年)
    • 星巴克 – 澳洲(7年)和以色列(2年)

    大家印象中会认为这些国家对美国文化是友好的,而不是敌视的。那么,这里可能出了什么问题?


    可能出了什么问题?

    让我们设身处地、从他们的角度想—我们的大部分扩张都取得了成功,其中一些甚至与美国截然不同。讨论可能会沿着以下思路进行:

    • 既然我们都已经在中国成功了,更何况 
      • 德国/澳洲 – 类似于美国,高收入的发达国家,开车很多…
      • 日本/韩国/以色列 – 对美国有很高的亲和力,喜欢美国品牌…
    • 所以,我们也应该在那里做得很好。做吧

    一个常见的陷阱是,一个市场中的成功公式可以在其他地方无缝复制。这种过度简化往往忽视了当地消费者偏好、监管环境和竞争格局的细微差别。


    海外拓展成功所需的5C:

    为了应对全球扩张的复杂性,必须考虑以下五个关键因素:

    1. 消费者/用户 (Consumers):
      • 了解他们的具体需求和偏好
      • 确定它们与国内市场不同的原因
      • 根据他们的理想体验量身定制您的产品
    2. 品类 (Category):
      • 分析您的产品或服务的细分市场和规模
      • 确定关键利益相关者,如供应商和市场合作伙伴。
    3. 国家/市场 (Country):
      • 熟悉当地法规和政策
      • 评估政治和经济因素的潜在影响
    4. 竞争对手 (Competition):
      • 评估直接和间接竞争对手
      • 了解现有的替代品及其市场地位
    5. 能力 (Capabilities):
      • 确定在国外市场取得成功所需的核心竞争力(而不仅仅是你在国内表现出色的能力)
      • 评估对额外资源和专业知识的需求

    与其问“我应该拓展Y国的业务吗?”,公司应该问“我们需要做出哪些调整才能进入这些国家?”

    在后续的帖子中,我将深入探讨上述5个驱动因素,并讨论我们必须有意识地努力克服这些偏见。

    如果你想更多地讨论这件事,请联系我。

  • Global Expansion – Worth It?

    Many organizations, driven by the allure of continuous growth, turn their sights to global expansion. The promise of untapped markets and accelerated growth can be irresistible. While this strategy can yield significant rewards, it’s crucial to approach it with a clear-eyed understanding of the challenges involved.

    However, not all expansions are created equal. History is replete with cautionary tales of even the most formidable companies stumbling in their international ventures.

    Are these companies global?

    Company% Revenue from outside home country (US)Revenue Growth (International vs. US)
    Walmart21%14% vs. 5%
    Starbucks22%-2% vs. 2%
    Mattel41%0.5% vs. -0.1%
    Airbnb53%13% vs. 10%

    Most people would agree that they are global companies with a substantial portion of their revenue coming from outside the US.

    However, even they have faced setbacks in their international ventures.


    Which of the following is more similar to the US?

    Most people would have picked Sydney, way over Beijing.

    I would have gone with Tokyo, but I have an international audience arguing that Shanghai is not too different. Story for another time…


     Walmart & Starbucks were both successful in China (as different from the US as it gets), until the broader market landscape changed. Some of the countries that they had to retreat from would be surprise, surprise…

    • Walmart – Germany (exited after 9 years) & Japan (12 years), Korea (7 years)
    • Starbucks – Australia (7 years) & Israel (2 years)

    These are countries that one would stereotype as friendly, not hostile to the US culture. So what could have gone wrong here?


    What could have gone wrong?

    Let’s put us in their shoes – We succeeded in most of our expansions, some of which are very different from our home country (US). The discussions would probably be along these lines:

    • We made it in country X/Y/Z, and 
      • Germany/Australia – similar to the US, developed country with high income, drive a lot…
      • Japan/Korea/Israel – high affinity to the US, love US brands…
    • So, we should be good there too. Let’s go

    One common pitfall is the assumption that a successful formula in one market can be seamlessly replicated elsewhere. This oversimplification often neglects the nuances of local consumer preferences, regulatory environments, and competitive landscapes.


    Vitamin Cs for a healthy global business

    To navigate the intricacies of global expansion, it’s essential to consider these five critical factors:

    1. Consumers/Users:
      • Understand their specific needs and preferences.
      • Determine why they differ from the home market.
      • Tailor your offerings to their ideal experience.
    2. Category:
      • Analyze market segments and sizes for your product or service.
      • Identify key stakeholders, such as suppliers and go-to-market partners.
    3. Country:
      • Familiarize yourself with local regulations and policies.
      • Assess the potential impact of political and economic factors.
    4. Competition:
      • Evaluate direct and indirect competitors.
      • Understand existing alternatives and their market positions.
    5. Capabilities:
      • Identify core competencies required for success in foreign markets (Not just what you do brilliantly at home)
      • Assess the need for additional resources and expertise.

    Instead of asking “Should I expand into country X?”, companies should ask “What adjustments do we need to make to enter these countries?”

    In the subsequent posts, I will dive deeper into the 5 drivers above and discuss the conscious effort we have to exert to overcome these biases.

    Please reach out to me if you would like to discuss more about this.